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Aslund replies - well, kinda of... Anders Aslund replied to a message I sent to him challenging his comparison of Putin to Polish Communist boss Edward Gierek found in JRL #9226. What I received was par for the course: no discussion, no exchange, no debate... just told to get lost... The following is Aslund's reply to what I think are reasonable questions challanging his analysis. OK, maybe I am not important enough to expect a reply, but the issues I cite are not trivial. He claims he knows something about Poland in the 70s and 80s - well so do I. I lived in Poland for well over a decade. All I can say is that Aslund is still another example of those earning well off the Sovietization of the American mind when it comes to Russia and the world.
Reading backwards, Aslund first - then my message to him.
From: Anders Aslund Mr. Lavelle: I regret receiving any communication from you and would prefer it not being repeated.
Anders Aslund -----Original Message-----
From: Peter Lavelle Mr Aslund, Having also been in Poland during those "hot summers," your comparison of Putin to Gierek strikes me as erroneous. Gierek's regime was popular, to a degree, until the very end. (I still have hundreds of files of underground pamphlets and samizdat published during the 70s criticizing the authorities - the post-doc I never wrote). I don't know what opinion polls you are referring to, but Putin remains very popular to this day (any Western leader would envy his poll numbers) and many Russians wouldn't mind if he remains president after 2008. Gierek's "political management was superb"??? What got him in trouble was gross political mismanagement of the economy (Radom in 1976 was indicative of this mismanagement). You and others can whine all you want about the Yukos affair (for the investment community the whole thing is in the past), but Putin's economic policies are far from failing. The average monthly income continues to grow and disposal income expenditures significantly contribute to GDP growth. Russia's middle class is growing and becoming more self-confident. Only until the fools who identify themselves as liberals can get their act together, this new middle class will continue support the authorities. Instead writing a diatribe against Putin's regime, it would be very constructive if you wrote a primer for Russia's liberals to breakout of their cul-de-sac - something I would gladly read! "Small minds" Agreed, Gierek failed to build a "Second Poland," but many Russians believe a new Russia is being built and Putin is directly associated with that project. Your articles on Ukraine, widely circulated in translation, informed many otherwise apolitical Russians they have a country worth caring about and defending. Putin's "policy failure" in Ukraine is panning out in a different way than most analysts and pundits care to recognize. Your most recent missive is being read in Russia as still another reason for Russians to not to take the United States seriously as an ally or friend. "The workers in industrial cities on the periphery rose spontaneously without any prior organization." Well, this is not exactly accurate and you know this. KOR played a key role in negotiating the end of the strikes on the Baltic coast and helping the workers get a better deal. When "pension-gate" hit the streets earlier this year, it was a pity Russia didn't have its own KOR to help demonstrators to better articulate their demands (the Kremlin would have listened as it truly is interested public opinion and would have never considered using force as Gierek did in Radom - there is simply too much media freedom in Russia today compared to communist Poland then). Student uprising? This appears hardly in the cards. Putin is very popular among students. Students are "aspirational" by nature in an economy that is far from a failure and they identify with Putin because of his "aspirational" hopes for Russia's future (irrespective if this only because of Kremlin PR). As for the issue of the draft - this is one area of corruption that remains deeply embedded in the system and probably the only area of corruption that has gotten worse over the past four years - the rich will continue to draft dodge and the poor will be conscripted, all very dangerous for Russia's medium term future). Polish workers didn't rise up to change the regime - demonstrators in Russia are no different. Gierek, like all communist leaders, politicized public life. He tried to buy political support, but failed. Putin is actually very apolitical and private enterprise in Russia continues to flourish - and everyone knows that paying taxes is something to be taken seriously. You strike me as, at the very least, an impatient person or a person who just wants to make a name for himself. I agree with many points you make concerning Putin's Russia, but for very different reasons. All the doomsday scenarios generated by Western think tanks have always gotten post-communist Russia wrong. Putin's Russia faces enormous problems, but Russia is not the basket case you seem to think it is. Peter Lavelle Return to the Current Articles page
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